Investment Institute
Macroeconomics

July Monthly Investment Strategy - One crazy summer

KEY POINTS
French elections avoided the most extreme political and economic outcomes, but threaten paralysis as the country manages its excess deficit issue.
US developments appear to overturn the political outlook. A Trump win is now our baseline. But Trump’s economic agenda could curtail Fed rate cuts next year.
China’s Third Plenum again promised active domestic demand support, but little sense of anything new.
Emerging market economies will be affected by these broader developments as much as developed.
While EM gross exports are driven by the larger economies, underlying growth is increasingly a function of South-South trade. EM could be well positioned to outperform, but will be vulnerable to Trumponomics.
Meanwhile central bank outlooks are increasingly easing, we expect the BoC (again) and BoE to cut rates over the coming weeks and the ECB (again) and Fed in September.

Related Materials

Full July 2024 Monthly Investment Strategy
Download July Macro Monthly (736.18 KB)
Investment Institute

Our experts and investment teams outline their key convictions.

    Disclaimer

    This website is published by AXA Investment Managers Australia Ltd (ABN 47 107 346 841 AFSL 273320) (“AXA IM Australia”) and is intended only for professional investors, sophisticated investors and wholesale clients as defined in the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth).

    This publication is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment research or financial analysis relating to transactions in financial instruments, nor does it constitute on the part of AXA Investment Managers or its affiliated companies an offer to buy or sell any investments, products or services, and should not be considered as solicitation or investment, legal or tax advice, a recommendation for an investment strategy or a personalized recommendation to buy or sell securities.

    Market commentary on the website has been prepared for general informational purposes by the authors, who are part of AXA Investment Managers. This market commentary reflects the views of the authors, and statements in it may differ from the views of others in AXA Investment Managers.

    Due to its simplification, this publication is partial and opinions, estimates and forecasts herein are subjective and subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee forecasts made will come to pass. Data, figures, declarations, analysis, predictions and other information in this publication is provided based on our state of knowledge at the time of creation of this publication. Whilst every care is taken, no representation or warranty (including liability towards third parties), express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information contained herein. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the recipient. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision.

    All investment involves risk , including the loss of capital. The value of investments and the income from them can fluctuate and investors may not get back the amount originally invested.